Bracketology: Ole Miss edition

Austin Miller: In your latest bracket on Monday, Ole Miss was one of your first four teams out. Elaborate on that and what’s your overall assessment of Ole Miss’ season?

Joe Lunardi: Ole Miss was one overtime away from being in the bracket with the game on Saturday. I think they’re going to stay right on the edge - either just in or just out – unless they can string (wins) together. They’ve pretty much been win one, lose one, win one, lose one, all the way since league play began. If they could have a week where they win twice, that would probably be enough to keep them there. If they string together a week more than once where they win twice, that would probably put them over the top. This bubble is soft, and they can do it. Playing .500 is not going to do it.

AM: What do you think the magic win number is for Ole Miss to be on the right side of the bubble come Selection Sunday?

JL: I think the minimum is probably 10 (conference wins) to feel confident and, then, depending on the draw, you certainly don’t want to lose to a lesser team in the conference tournament. If they get to 10 (wins), they might not need to win an “up” game, they might just need to avoid losing a “down” game. They would have a hard time getting to 10 (wins) without beating two or three pretty good teams. They got to get a couple more scalps.

AM: How big is Thursday night’s game at Mississippi State?

JL: If they could put together a season sweep together over a team that they’re going to be in direct competition with, that would be huge. Although I seem to remember last year it didn’t help Alabama out that they swept Georgia. I made the case for Alabama based on that, and it was Georgia that got in. Generally speaking, if they lose at Missisisppi State, their position is going to remain unchanged because they’re supposed to lose to Mississippi State; they’re supposed to split that. But if they sweep them and then they beat either Vanderbilt or Kentucky, now we’re talking.

AM: How “soft” is bubble this year compared to other years?

JL: It’s beginning to reflect the fact that the tournament expanded in the last couple of years. Like last year, UAB got in without beating a single at-large team in the field. Normally, that would be impossible. And, Mississippi now, they have got twice as many, if not, three times as many losses to potential postseason teams as they do wins. Normally, you would look at their resume and go, “That’s a NIT team.” But, at least three and maybe more NIT-type teams are now getting into the NCAA Tournament. Good for them if they can be one of them.

AM: How does the computer resume (RPI: 51, SOS: 48) match up with the eye test for Ole Miss? How does the selection balance those two factors?

JL: I don’t think they’re great on the eye test, and I think some of the other rating systems back that up. The Pomeroy (ratings) has them in the low 100s (104) and Sagarin (ratings) has them in the 90s (95), but they did play a decent non-conference schedule, and that’s helping them. They got to get 11 conference wins, counting the SEC Tournament. That would seem, to me, to be the magic number. Kind of be like Penn State last year, which plodded along in the Big 10 and won three games when it mattered most.

AM: How many Southeastern Conference teams do you think get in the NCAA Tournament?

JL: If I had to bet, I would bet on five (teams). I think Ole Miss will fall just short at the end of the day and the same for Arkansas. Although, I suppose one of those two, which are pretty close to the bubble, could move up. Normally, I would say one of them would move up. But right now, the fifth team in, I think, is Alabama, and they’re not a lock because they’re only 4-4 in conference, and they were really fortunate to escape with that home win on Saturday.

AM: At the end of the day, what do you think the difference is in making the NCAA Tournament and missing the NCAA Tournament?

JL: I think it comes down to this: to play in the NCAA Tournament, to me, you have to prove that you can beat other teams in the field, ideally away from home - whether that’s neutral or whether that’s road, whether that’s conference tournament or whether’s that’s regular season. And Ole Miss has failed far more often than they have succeeded in that pursuit. They need to tilt it, maybe not back all the way, .500 against those kind of teams, but better than they are right now.