“It’s good to be back.”
Matt Luke’s first words back in Oxford weren’t surprising after spending three days in Covington, Kentucky, watching the future of Ole Miss football play out during the NCAA’s Committee on Infractions meeting. Luke and his Rebels can finally focus on football again as they hit the air Thursday en route to Berkeley, California, where they will face a high-flying Golden Bears team Saturday night.
California provides a measuring stick for Ole Miss as it faces its first Power Five conference foe, especially given how eerily its strengths and weaknesses reflect Ole Miss’ own. This Pac-12/SEC showdown will show fans two teams that employ a passing-oriented offense while struggling on the defensive side of the ball.
Thus far, each team has given up 25 points per game against weaker opponents, a statistic that ranks 68th in FBS football this year. Both teams also rely on a sophomore quarterback surrounded by an excellent group of young wide receivers to outgun their opponents from game to game.
The Golden Bears’ record currently stands at 2-0, and their week one win against North Carolina surprised many fans and analysts expecting a team stuck in the rebuilding phase. Cal has averaged 34 points per game, but its defense has struggled mightily, allowing a whopping 506 yards per game, placing them for 121st in the FBS.
The Golden Bears also lost starting tailback Tre Watson to a lower-body injury last week, which should be a big blow to their offense, even though backup Patrick Laird looked more than serviceable in the second half against Weber State. The Rebels will be forced to fend off more pure athletic ability than they have seen so far, and that adjustment has been a focal point all week in practice.
The Rebels hope to continue their offensive success against a team that has looked lost against less talented opponents. Luke’s team has averaged a whopping 46 points per game and 537 total yards per game behind the arm of quarterback Shea Patterson, whose nine touchdowns and 918 passing yards are first and second, respectively, in the FBS.
A.J. Brown has been another statistical monster, racking up 389 receiving yards in the first two games, more than any other receiver in the FBS.
While the Rebels’ passing prowess has been well-noted, their run game continues to fall short. Ole Miss is averaging only 78 rushing yards per game. Offensive coordinator Phil Longo favors an “Air-Raid” approach, and the Rebels only run the ball on 31.4 percent of standard downs, the lowest run percentage in the country among FBS schools. If the Golden Bears’ veteran secondary neutralizes Ole Miss’ wide receivers, the Rebels’ lack of balance could come back to bite them.
This game will provide an opportunity to see how far this young Ole Miss team has come and how far it can go. With a bye week and then Alabama on the horizon, Ole Miss has a chance to progress from promising to proven in a game that should provide plenty of points, perspective and more points.
Kickoff is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. CDT on Saturday in Berkley, California.
