The Ole Miss Rebels’ playoff hopes are alive after their historic 28-10 victory over the Georgia Bulldogs on Saturday, Nov. 9.
In the latest College Football Playoff Poll released on Tuesday, Nov. 12, the selection committee placed the Rebels at No. 11. The final ranking of the 12-team playoff will be announced on Sunday, Dec. 8.
The four highest ranked conference champions will automatically make the playoffs. Those teams will be seeded one through four and receive a first-round bye to advance to the second round. The fifth-highest ranked conference champion will also receive an automatic bid but will compete in the first round alongside seeds six through 12.
According to the CFP website, “The selection committee ranks the teams based on the members’ evaluation of the teams’ performance on the field, using conference championships won, strength of schedule, head-to-head results and comparison of results against common opponents.”
If Ole Miss defeats its next two opponents — Florida and Mississippi State — to finish the regular season 10-2, the Rebels would be in the driver’s seat for a top-12 finish.
Per Fanduel Sports Book, Ole Miss has the eighth best odds to make the playoffs at -350. They share these odds with three other teams, including Alabama, Tennessee and Notre Dame. Based on these odds, Ole Miss controls their own destiny.
There are concerns, however, that Ole Miss might not make the cut due to the other teams currently in the mix to earn a spot in postseason play.
There are currently 13 teams — including Ole Miss at 60.9% — with an above 50% chance to make the playoffs, according to ESPN’s football power index. Of those 13 teams, five of them are in the SEC, which could hurt Ole Miss’ chances even more. It is likely only four SEC teams will make the playoffs.
The other SEC teams are Texas, Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee. Of those four teams, two of them — Tennessee and Georgia — will play each other in the remainder of the regular season. The loser will likely be out of the playoffs. It is also shaping up to look like Texas and Alabama will play in the SEC championship, with the loser also missing out on the playoffs.
In order for the Rebels to be more comfortable in their playoff position, Tennessee needs to beat Georgia, and if Alabama makes it to the SEC title game, they would need to lose to Texas. It also goes without saying that Ole Miss needs to, in the words of quarterback Jaxson Dart, “win out.”
Senior public policy leadership major Harris Smith is confident in the Rebels ability to “win out” and make it to the playoffs.
“I believe we are getting hot at the right time, and I believe Kiffin and company are Ole Miss’s best shot for a national championship in recent CFB history,” Smith said.
Senior marketing major Carter Matulich shared Smith’s confidence.
“Overall, (I am) pretty confident in our playoff hopes,” Matulich said. “Teams like Notre Dame and Tennessee losing will definitely play to our favor and maybe even get to see a Rebs home playoff game.”
If things happen correctly for Ole Miss, who could they face?
Overall, most people predict the Rebels falling into the No. 8-11 range, meaning that they could either host a playoff game or have to travel to a hostile environment, such as Penn State.
On3’s Andy Staples has the Rebels coming in at the No. 8 seed, hosting a playoff game against the No. 9 Notre Dame. This scenario is not ideal, as the Rebels would have No. 1 Oregon waiting for them if they manage to beat the Fighting Irish. If they make it past Oregon, they would face either SMU, Ohio State or Boise State for a shot to be in the national title game.
The Sporting News’ Bill Bender has the Rebels coming in at the No. 11 seed facing No. 6 Penn State. While an away game in Happy Valley would be tough, the Nittany Lions have struggled in big games this season. In this scenario, if they win, the Rebels would face No. 3 BYU, who continue to win games and remain undefeated.
While BYU is a good team, they have clear problems, as seen in their narrow victory against Utah in the Holy War. Ole Miss would then face an SEC team — Texas, Tennessee or Alabama for a shot at the national title. This is the best option, when compared with the rest of the predictions for the Rebels.
Then there’s the Athletic’s Austin Mock, who has Ole Miss slotted in at the No. 10 spot, facing No. 7 Notre Dame. This is the nightmare scenario if the Rebels get in, as they would have to travel to South Bend to face the Fighting Irish. If they managed to win that game, Ole Miss would then move on to face the No. 3 Texas Longhorns, possibly the best team in the SEC.
The Rebels’ playoff run would more than likely end there, but if not, they would face Miami, Georgia or Penn State to potentially play in the National Championship. Of the three outcomes that were shown, this would be the most difficult road for Ole Miss.
With their fate in their hands, the Rebels will look to finish the regular season strong, aiming to win out and secure an official playoff berth for the postseason. Ole Miss’ away game at the Swamp against Florida could be a trap game, but the Gators recently got demolished by Texas. The Rebels will play Mississippi State in Oxford. While the home team will be heavily favored, anything can happen on rivalry week.
In the meantime, fans who attended the historic Georgia game have been reflecting and reminiscing on the events of Saturday night.
The win was Ole Miss Head Coach Lane Kiffin’s first AP Top 5 win as head coach for the Rebels. Just last year, the Rebels were humbled by the Bulldogs on their home turf in Athens, Ga., when Georgia defeated Ole Miss 52-17. This was one of the Rebels’ two losses last year. The other came from a 24-10 loss in Bryant-Denny Stadium to Alabama.
In addition to rushing the field — twice — which resulted in $350,000 in fines, fans also tore down the goal posts and brought them to the Square.
“I was ecstatic about the win,” sophomore public policy leadership major Trey McKean said. “Our defense played physical all game long, and our pass rush was pressuring Carson Beck without even needing to blitz. Dart looked comfortable in the pocket and used his legs well when he had to.”
For other students, the win was eye opening in the sense of what it is like to be a part of the SEC Football culture.
“As somebody who two years ago would never imagine they would end up at an SEC school, or much less attend a football game, it helped me see the importance that games like this have on towns, communities and our students,” sophomore public policy leadership major Edward Wilson said.
