What time is it again? Why is everyone so excited? If you happen to be out of loop, along with fresh flowers and buzzing bees, spring has finally brought March Madness season. The advent of March signifies the end of the college basketball regular season and ushers in a magnificent end-of-season tournament: March Madness.
The NCAA Tournament, a contest of the top 68 teams with win-or-go-home rules, holds a special place in the hearts of college basketball homers, sports fanatics and moms who pick the winning team based on the “pretty colors,” the mascot or the fact that a distant eighth cousin went there.
All this to say, March Madness is the mecca of postseason play for any sport. It is the most unpredictable format that has provided players, coaches and fans alike with years and years of some of the most entertaining and dramatic basketball ever played.
Sites like March Madness Live and ESPN host bracket challenges in which people try to correctly assess each and every game’s outcome, eventually picking a champion team.
No one has ever correctly predicted every single game, but that’s the fun of it. Regardless of how right or wrong your bracket turns out to be, the bracket challenge gets fans invested in the tournament even when their favorite team is not on the court.
Although filling out a 68-team bracket is a somewhat daunting task, millions of people do it every year, and some people even fill out multiple. This begs the question: what should bracketeers look for in order to make the most educated picks for their bracket?
Upsets
The upsets are what make March Madness what it is. They happen every year, and they are seemingly unpredictable … or are they?
The typical low seeds to look out for are the No. 11, No. 12 and No. 15 seeds.
No. 15 seeds
Let’s start with the least suspecting seed: the 15 seeds. It is highly unlikely that a 15 seed upsets their No. 2 seed in the first round, but it has happened in each of the last three years. Even more notably, each 15 seed that won its first round matchup in the last three seasons has advanced to at least the Sweet 16.
The 15 seeds this year consist of Long Beach State, Western Kentucky, South Dakota State and Saint Peter’s. With that being said, the No. 2 seeds, Tennessee, Arizona, Marquette and Iowa State better stay vigilant.
No. 12 seeds
Next is the 12 seeds. In 32 of the last 38 tournaments, a No. 12 seed has advanced past its No. 5 seed opponent. This means that either Grand Canyon, James Madison, McNeese State or UAB have an almost 85% chance to advance.
Better yet, a No. 12 seed has only failed to make it to the Round of 32 three times in the last 30 years, last year being one of those years. Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s and San Diego State seem to be on a collision course with at least one of these upset-ready No. 15 seeds. If you are something of a gambler, however, consider staking your bets in the 30-3 Southland Conference champion McNeese State Cowboys led by Head Coach Will Wade and star guard Shahada Wells to upset the Gonzaga Bulldogs.
No. 11 seeds
In seven of the past nine NCAA tournaments, an 11 seed has made it all the way to the Sweet 16, and some have made it even further – check 2018 Loyola Chicago and 2021 UCLA, who each made it to the Final 4 in their respective tournaments.
The all time record between No. 6 seeds and No. 11 seeds is also something to consider. Since the field expanded to 68 teams in 2011, No. 11 seeds are 25-23 versus No. 6 seeds. The tip here is to find a matchup that seems close enough and rock with one No. 11 seed. Odds are that Oregon, New Mexico, NC State or Duquesne will get the best of South Carolina, Clemson, Texas Tech or BYU, respectively.
Other upsets
The other upset-worthy matchups are not as notable, electric or exciting, however, they are worth mentioning. No. 13 and No. 14 seeds hardly get the best of their opponents in the first round, but they typically put up a formidable fight.
More recently, No. 13 North Texas got the better of No. 4 Purdue. With No. 16 seeds, the obvious stat is that only two of them have ever gotten past a No. 1 seed, and, not to pick on Purdue again, but it happened last year with FDU.
The No. 8/No. 9 and No. 7/No. 10 games are always coin flips. Historically, No. 9 seeds have the edge over No. 8 seeds. There also seems to be a fairly even split between No. 7’s and No. 10’s, so the safest bet is to throw in at least one game where the No. 10 gets the best of its higher seeded opponent.
Mathematically, who will win March Madness?
There are countless metrics that have held true and are helpful in narrowing down which teams have a chance of cutting down the nets at the end of the tournament.
For starters, each of the last two decades champions were in the top 12 of the of the week 6 Associated Press poll, which already narrows us down to Arizona, Kansas, Purdue, Houston, UConn, Baylor, Marquette, Creighton, North Carolina, Gonzaga and Tennessee – this list excludes Oklahoma, who ranked No. 11 in the week 6 poll because they missed the tournament.
Breaking it down even further, since 2004 the champion team has always been rated in the top 25 in adjusted defense and top 40 in adjusted offense. This leaves us with Creighton, UConn, Purdue, North Carolina, Marquette, Tennessee, Arizona and Houston for top-spot contenders.
Additionally, the national champion since 1985 has made it to at least the semifinals of their respective conference tournaments. This takes us all the way down to six teams: UConn, Purdue, North Carolina, Marquette, Arizona and Houston.
Weirdly enough, anyone who lies to the right of a line drawn directly in the middle of the United States has a chance of winning based on recent trends, so this knocks off Arizona.
No team has ever won the national championship from a conference with less than four representatives in the field of 68. The Big East ended up with only three teams thanks to the most bid stealers we have seen in years, so this would technically disqualify UConn and Marquette, but they should still remain in tier 1B contention.
Left in the pool of potential champions is Purdue, Houston and North Carolina, with UConn and Marquette still with a pathway to victory.
Final thoughts
This advice should not be taken as gospel when filling out a bracket, but keeping these metrics in mind helps when deciding between upsets or chalk. They also simplify the process of choosing a national champion a great deal.
Some people might still want to pick based on pretty colors, cool mascots and family ties. To those people I say this: You will probably have a better bracket than me, but that is the fun of it all, anyway.
