Football is unpredictable.
One can try to throw statistics at it to make it make sense, but ultimately, it’s just a guessing game. The over/under is as difficult to predict as a prospect’s success at the next level, be that at an SEC program or in the NFL, but that doesn’t mean that sportswriters and pundits won’t try their best to throw a saddle on the beast and give it a shot.
The preseason polls had the usual suspects ranked as contenders.
Alabama atop the coaches poll, followed by Ohio State, Georgia and then Clemson.
The same four that have held on as the teams to beat in the sport for the last half decade, and the same four everyone assumed would end up in the playoffs, with Clemson as the most unpopular pick of those four.
Fast forward to Jan. 9, and Georgia was crowned as the first team in the CFP era to win consecutive national titles, earning the record for the largest blowout in the history of bowl games (the Bulldogs beat TCU 65-7).
How did this happen? How was Alabama, which boasted two players that may well be drafted first overall in quarterback Bryce Young and edge rusher Will Anderson, knocked out of the playoff for the first time since 2019?
The answer, in a word, is upsets.
Upsets happened this season at a rate that seemed disproportionate to years past, with memorable losses, including Appalachian State’s memorable early season victory over Texas A&M, No.6 Tennessee’s victory at Neyland vs. No.5 Alabama and Mizzou’s near victory over the No.1 Georgia Bulldogs (a final score of 22-26).
As the season played out, the midseason favorites began to fall behind. Tennessee’s star quarterback Hendon Hooker tore his ACL in Week 11 during a massacre to South Carolina, and Alabama dropped two games in three weeks to Tennessee and LSU.
Things changed, teams lost, and all of a sudden, Nick Saban seemed mortal. Georgia showed clear signs of weakness in the Mizzou game, and the SEC looked vulnerable (for a moment).
Other teams began to fall by the wayside too.
No.18 Notre Dame handed No.13 Clemson its first loss of the season, dropping them to 8-1 and effectively killing their hopes of playoff success. Michigan began to climb, solidifying its playoff chances by beating Ohio State for the second season in a row.
Michigan suffered in the playoff, losing to TCU in an upset no one believed until they saw it happen, due in some part to the Wolverines’ loss of star running back Blake Corum. After both of the Big Ten’s best fell to Georgia and TCU, respectively, the national title game was set to kickoff between the historic underdog Horned Frogs and the dynasty-in-the-making Bulldogs.
Although the season as a whole was plenty unpredictable, the championship game seemed to end in a way everyone saw coming.
The College Football Playoff committee voted to expand the playoffs earlier this year, beginning a 12-team playoff in 2024.
It’s been argued that expansion before an increased parity in the college ranks only helps the rich get richer, allowing teams like Ohio State and Alabama to drop multiple losses while still being allowed to compete for the title, being asked to beat teams like Tulane and Utah (both of which finished the season ranked within the top 10 by the AP), which is hardly a tall order for teams made up of surefire NFL prospects.
There’s an argument to be had that Alabama or Tennessee may have been more competitive in the championship game than TCU was, but no matter the merit of that idea, it can’t be argued that TCU didn’t deserve a chance to be there.
That being said, TCU versus Georgia is absolutely a harbinger of games to come in an expanded playoff system. The 65-7 scoreline is likely more dramatic than most games we’ll see in the coming years, but make no mistake, upsets can indeed happen in college football, but the reality is that teams like TCU don’t play in the same league as a team like Georgia.
The Bulldogs set the record for players drafted in the first round last season with 15, and still came back for a generally dominant championship year, proving the age old saying about the most dominant conference of the 21st century: A team of SEC backups will beat a team of starters from any other conference, more often than not.
