No. 7 Ole Miss will take on a talented but desperate Texas team this Saturday at 6:30 p.m. in Austin, Texas. The No. 19 Longhorns are coming off back-to-back losses to unranked teams, while the Rebels seem to have found their stride, especially on the defensive side of the ball.
An Ole Miss win would certainly boost Rebel playoff odds, and Texas is one loss away from being eliminated from the College Football Playoff. This Week 8 matchup is critical for both teams.
Texas has had one of the worst stretches of any program in college football this month. The Longhorns finished September ranked No. 1 with a close win over a Top-15 Tennessee team before falling to No. 19 in the polls after two straight losses to unranked Oklahoma and unranked Florida.
The Longhorns have not been losing by a wide margin — the final score in both losses was just 27-24 —but the losses have created a conundrum for the team. Do the Longhorns continue playing quarterback Arch Manning, or do they pivot amid this skid?
Manning has not played particularly well this season. In the win over Tennessee, he only threw for 201 yards and one interception. Over the past three games, he has thrown four touchdowns to three interceptions, but more glaring is his lack of rushing ability. He only has 19 rushing yards over that span, while taking an incredulous 13 sacks.
Manning’s total quarterback rating, which measures quarterback efficiency, is 48.56 when excluding his outlier performance against Texas State. This ranks about 90th in the country. For reference, Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss’ QBR of 83.5 ranks 11th in the nation.It has even been reported that Texas’ backup quarterback KJ Lacey will receive more reps with the first-team offense this week. Whether Manning will be benched remains to be seen, but if he continues to struggle the way he has the past few weeks, head coach Steve Sarkisian may be inclined to sit him.
The Longhorn defense is more reliable; however, the unit just lost one of its best players, edge rusher Colin Simmons, to an ankle injury that will keep him out multiple weeks. Simmons leads the nation with 10.5 sacks and 16 tackles for loss.
Simmons’ absence relieves some of the pressure on the Rebel offensive line that has been exceptional at protecting Chambliss. He has only been pressured on 18% of his dropbacks, good for best in the SEC.
Throughout the season, Chambliss has looked elite. During the Missouri game, he looked shakier, missing multiple throws that he normally makes. His accuracy could just be a one-off showing that he is not infallible.
Regardless, his connections to his receivers, especially Deuce Alexander, will be a focal point during the week’s practices.
Running back Kewan Lacy is a superstar, yet he has not been able to play much this season due to various injuries. He looked like he was finally going to be healthy for the Missouri game, but had to be sidelined from the end of the first quarter to the beginning of the third quarter before making a return.
While it was not his most dominant performance, he had two runs of 17 yards, a 16-yard run and a 23-yard run, totaling 122 rushing yards in the contest.
Early in the season, the Ole Miss defense was a glaring hole for the team. Against Florida, it was atrocious, with missed tackles, broken coverages and an abysmal performance all around.
Following that game, the defense seems to have found its stride against Vanderbilt and Missouri.
In the past two weeks, the Rebel defense has totaled five sacks and 13 tackles for loss, while also tallying two interceptions and 13 pass breakups. This is a stark contrast to earlier in the year where the defense looked out of place.
The starting lineup was heavily boosted in the offseason by many highly valued transfers and recruits, but it did not look very effective at the beginning of the season. However, now that the defense is fully healthy and the players have had more opportunities to play together, it looks like the unit is finally starting to gel.
The main factor to look for in this game is the quarterback play from both Manning and Chambliss. Chambliss needs to make sure his struggles against Missouri do not become a trend, while Manning needs a game to rectify his mistakes.
The Ole Miss defense also needs to continue its hot streak. The Rebels have been much more efficient in October than they were in September. That efficiency will be crucial in this Week 8 matchup.
The Longhorns are reeling from two straight losses, which might make them an easier target — or it might serve as motivation, since their playoff hopes hang in the balance.
