Brandon Adam, The Daily Reveille assistant sports editor, joins The Daily Mississippian sports editor Grayson Weir to discuss Saturday’s rivalry game between Ole Miss and Louisiana State University.
Grayson Weir: Addressing the elephant in the room … this weekend’s matchup marks once-LSU-commit Shea Patterson’s first game against the Tigers and head coach Ed Orgeron’s return to Oxford. Does this add another layer to the already established rivalry, or is it just business as usual?
Brandon Adam: If not for the “The Blind Side” clip, most of the players and fans don’t remember that coach O was in Oxford. Thus, his return is not a big talking point. He did, however, say that he wants to say hello to the cook at the Exxon that serves chicken on a stick. With Shea, too, most casual fans have forgotten about him not committing to LSU and that his brother was on staff. Especially considering his move to IMG for senior year, it’s Ole Miss week and business as usual.
GW: LSU held Auburn and quarterback Jarrett Stidham to a 34 percent completion rate, and it appears “DBU” is holding true to its name in Baton Rouge. In Oxford, Patterson is averaging 357.2 passing yards per game, and WRU is holding true to its name. How does the defense plan to approach the prolific passing attack?
BA: LSU is going to play man coverage for most of the game and force the Ole Miss receivers to beat it. It is what it has done almost every time it played Ole Miss. LSU won’t be afraid of having young cornerbacks go man-up with Ole Miss’ best receivers (Tre’Davious White covered Treadwell in 2014).
GW: Ole Miss’ defense has been a liability and allowed opponents 238.5 yards on the ground. Derrius Guice, when healthy, is one of the nation’s top backs, and offensive coordinator Matt Canada presumably will look to establish the ground game early. Is Guice healthy? Outside of Guice, is there a player bound for a big day? Someone who may come out of the woodwork?
BA: While Guice is not exactly 100 percent, he is getting better every week, and it shows. Don’t expect Guice to run for 284 yards like Leonard Fournette, but 150 is not out of the realm of possibility. LSU also uses a variety of jet sweeps to get the ball into the hands of its best players. Senior receiver Russell Gage and sophomore Derrick Dillon are the two most dangerous weapons on the jet sweep. Gage has 168 yards on 18 carries and a touchdown. The past two weeks, Gage had a 30-yard TD against Florida and a 70-yard gain against Auburn off of jet sweeps. Dillon has 10 carries for 91 yards. LSU will also utilize senior running back Darrel Williams. Williams won’t break off any long runs but is a big, physical back who picks up consistent yardage.
GW: Danny Etling will be under center the majority of the game for the purple and gold, but coach O has hinted at a wildcat-esque package for redshirt sophomore Justin McMillan. Is this package something the Tigers will use often? What’s the purpose?
BA: He is going to be a seldom-used part of the offense; nothing will be based around him except for a couple of snaps here and there.
GW: LSU has yet to be tested in a high-scoring shootout. Saturday very well could be exactly that. Are the Tigers able to hang? Is the depth a place of confidence or concern?
BA: I don’t expect Saturday to be a shootout, but if it is, LSU will be fine offensively, and it means something went horribly wrong on defense. Against Mississippi State, LSU was without four defensive linemen for the majority of the game, including Rashard Lawrence, who is one of the team’s best defensive players. LSU has gained all four (Ed Alexander, Frank Herron, Neil Farrell) of those guys back. If Ole Miss is going to have success against LSU, it is going to require it running the back early and often.
GW: For LSU to hold on to the title of “Magnolia Bowl champions,” what needs to happen? Prediction?
BA: LSU should win, but as seen in games against Mississippi State and Troy, it is very easy for LSU to lose focus and come in unprepared. LSU just needs to play its game and get into the game early, which is something it has struggled to do all season (only 28 points in the first quarter all season).
Brandon Adam: Is Ole Miss going to consistently run the ball?
Grayson Weir: The majority of the offensive focus will remain in the air and around Shea Patterson. However, running back Jordan Wilkins has emerged as a reliable option on the ground, rushing for more than 100 yards on 18 carries last weekend against Vanderbilt. While LSU’s defense is a much bigger beast than that of the Commodores, offensive coordinator Phil Longo will certainly attempt to establish a balance between the run and the pass early on.
BA: How confident is the team that the receivers will be able to separate from LSU’s cornerbacks?
GW: Very. A.J. Brown, despite suffering an injury against Cal, leads the SEC in receiving yards, and DaMarkus Lodge is not far behind in fourth. And that’s before you factor in D.K. Metcalf, Van Jefferson and Wilkins out of the backfield. While LSU may boast some of the top cornerbacks in the nation, the size, athleticism and depth of the Nasty Wide Outs will make separation a non-issue.
BA: Does Ole Miss have the size inside and the speed outside to stop LSU’s run game?
GW: The run defense has been a question mark all year, and Vanderbilt’s Ralph Webb running for 163 yards on 23 carries was considered a success. Sad, I know. That being said, the talent is there. Breeland Speaks, Josiah Coatney, Benito Jones, Victor Evans and company are all defensive linemen who can run like linebackers. Their size and speed don’t add up, and that certainly plays in the Rebels’ favor when it comes to their opponents trying to run in between the tackles. Should the big fellas do their job and force Guice to bounce it outside, the second and third levels have been unable to wrap up, allowing the rushing yards to accumulate like the national debt ticker. This will be the biggest point of emphasis and biggest concern coming into the game; Guice will most likely run up and down the field.
BA: What’s your prediction? How is Saturday going to go?
GW: This game comes down to which team can force the other to be one-dimensional and which team can get the other off of the field. While that may sound ridiculous, there are two things of certainty: The Tigers will run, and the Rebels will pass. Both teams will attempt to establish the other facet of the game, and the team that cannot do that will lose. Wilkins will show out, Ole Miss will tap into a place of psychoticism and WRU will defeat DBU at home.
