The SEC giveth, and the SEC taketh away.
After dropping a 37-7 blowout to Mississippi State, the now-No. 24 LSU Tigers were teetering on the brink of irrelevancy. But the Southeastern Conference, ever the unpredictable mistress, suddenly ebbed in LSU’s favor, with back-to-back wins over then-No. 21 Florida and then-No. 10 Auburn. With a renewed sense of purpose, the 5-2 Tigers are next in line to visit Oxford this weekend for a bout with the struggling Ole Miss Rebels.
Hugh Freeze, the former Ole Miss head coach, left behind a program in chaos. After four consecutive top-20 recruiting classes, including a top-five group in 2016, the Rebels’ 2017 class fell out of the top 30. That’s a death sentence in SEC Land. But that’s not all — Freeze took plenty with him. The former play-caller left Mississippi’s flagship program without an identity. The Rebels, a defensive juggernaut throughout the late 2000s and early 2010s, have struggled without the ball for the past three seasons.
Through six games, the Rebel defense has conceded an average 37 points per game, 116th in the FBS. Aside from senior standout Marquis Haynes, whose 27th sack last weekend broke the school record for sacks in a college career, the Ole Miss defensive unit is largely toothless. LSU has not captured many headlines on offense, but it often doesn’t have to. The Tigers rely on staunch defense, led by formidable linebacker Arden Key, to suffocate opposing offenses. This year’s iteration of LSU defense ranks 22nd in the nation, holding opponents to an average of 315.3 yards per game. The Rebels won’t have it easy Saturday, but they certainly won’t go down without a fight.
Among FBS schools, Ole Miss ranks 29th in total offense, generating 462.5 yards of average offense per game. With that said, 77.2 percent (357.2) of those yards arrived in the air. The Rebels, it’s been noted, are running a rather one-dimensional Air Raid. Which is not good news, considering LSU ranks 14th among FBS schools in passing yards allowed (170.6). Offensive coordinator Phil Longo, hired during the offseason, ignited the FCS at Sam Houston State. His offense accumulated more than 4,500 passing yards and 2,000 rushing yards, unparalleled among Division I programs. But so far, his system has not transferred well into the SEC. It could be a lack of talent, but Longo’s scheme seems too simple to succeed. Opponents figure out quarterback Shea Patterson early and counter in the second half.
Patterson, the top-ranked quarterback in his recruiting class, debuted in front of more than 100,000 fans in College Station, Texas, last year. The man is no stranger to pressure. But his tendency to roll out of the pocket early and hold on to balls that should have been thrown away continues to concern fans and coaches. His arm is no joke: He broke the school’s single-game passing record against UT-Martin this season, but the jury remains out on Patterson’s next-level decision-making.
A talented group of receivers, known collectively as the “Nasty Wide Outs (NWO),” adds to the passing threat, but teams have begun countering with deep, zonal coverage. A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, Van Jefferson and DaMarkus Lodge present a dangerous four-headed hydra for opponents to contain. Brown put together a 233-yard performance against South Alabama earlier this fall. But LSU isn’t South Alabama. Still, try as it might to defend it, expect LSU to concede a couple deep connections. But for Ole Miss to walk away with a win Saturday, it’ll take more than passing.
The Rebels need a run threat. Without one, their offense is predictable and easy to defend. Jordan Wilkins, a running back who sat out in 2016 because of academic ineligibility, could add some unpredictability to the mix. The senior started off slowly in 2017, but two 100-plus-yard games against Alabama and Vanderbilt hint at better things to come. He won’t single-handedly bail out the Rebels, but it’s a start.
First-year head coach Matt Luke has his work cut out for him Saturday. A win is certainly not out of the question; as of Wednesday, the Rebels are just seven-point underdogs in Vegas. But Ed Orgeron, current head coach at LSU and former Ole Miss head coach from 2005 to 2007, knows his way around Oxford. He’s sure to arrive in the Magnolia State with a few tricks up his sleeve.
Kickoff is set for 6:15 p.m. Saturday at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium.
