After a gritty 34-24 win against Florida last weekend, No. 6 Ole Miss (10-1, 6-1 SEC) looks to keep rolling in Starkville, Miss., for the annual Egg Bowl against Mississippi State on Friday, Nov. 28.
Ole Miss moved past now-No. 10 Alabama in this week’s College Football Playoff rankings after the Crimson Tide’s 23-21 loss to then-No. 11 Oklahoma. The Rebels now have a 99% chance to make the playoffs, according to Pro Football and Sports Network. Still, if Ole Miss wants to host a playoff game and keep its slim SEC Championship hopes alive, the Mississippi State game is a must-win.
The Rebels cannot be fooled by the Bulldogs’ 5-6 (1-6 SEC) record; anything can happen in a rivalry game. Last season, then-No. 2 Ohio State — which went on to win the College Football Playoff — lost 13-10 at home against unranked Michigan. Mississippi State has lost the last two Egg Bowls and will be out for blood.
The Bulldogs are coming off a 49-27 loss to Missouri and have only one win in SEC play on the season. However, some of their losses demonstrate that they are not a pushover for opposing teams. The Bulldogs lost by only a touchdown in overtime at then-No. 15 Tennessee; they also dropped an overtime game to then-No. 22 Texas despite being ahead 31-14 at the start of the fourth quarter.
The Rebels failed to separate themselves early against a 3-6 (2-4 SEC) Florida team. Ole Miss trailed through three quarters before rallying in the fourth to win. The Rebel defense struggled in the first half, yielding 24 points to the now-No. 15 offense in the SEC in terms of yards per game.
Furthermore, the play-calling raised some questions. Despite running back Kewan Lacy’s 224 rushing yards and three touchdowns, offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. chose to go a different direction in some crucial moments. This included throwing a screen pass on Florida’s one-yard line on fourth down in the third quarter while down four. The pass was incomplete, and the Rebels turned the ball over on downs.
Weis also dialed up multiple screen passes the Gators immediately sniffed out and contained.
If the Rebels want to leave Starkville with a win, they will need to lean on Lacy. In six of Ole Miss’ 10 wins, Lacy has logged 20 or more carries. He should be included heavily in the game plan against the worst-performing defense in the SEC (189.82 rushing yards allowed per game).
Besides hiccups in the first half against Florida, the Rebels’ defense has shown improvement since the Georgia game, when they allowed a score every time Georgia had the ball. After giving up 24 points in the first half to Florida, the Ole Miss defense shut out the Gators in the second half.
The bottom line is that this is a sneaky important game for Ole Miss. Though the Rebels’ only loss of the season came against then-No. 9 Georgia, they have only two wins among teams currently ranked within the CFP poll’s Top 25, and their strength of schedule is only No. 34 in the country.
If the Rebels win, they are comfortably a playoff team and will almost definitely host a first-round game. If they lose, though, there is a chance that they drop out of the playoff race altogether — and nothing could mend a disgruntled Mississippi State’s ego quite like ruining Ole Miss’ playoff dreams at the last moment.
The Egg Bowl kicks off on Friday, Nov. 28 at 11 a.m. The game will be broadcast on ABC.
