Following its 24-19 win versus then-No. 4 LSU, Ole Miss climbed to its highest AP ranking in a decade and replaced the Tigers at No. 4 in the polls. This rise has many fans, the rest of the SEC and the nation asking one question: How far can this team go?
The Rebels started last season 4-0, but losses against Kentucky, LSU and Florida in SEC play severely hurt their playoff chances. Heading into the bye week this year, the 5-0 (3-0 SEC) Rebels control their destiny with a Top 4 win already under their belt.
Ole Miss looks promising for the SEC Championship and the College Football Playoffs. Still, in college football, wins themselves are not always the end all be all — also playing a factor is the quality of the opponents.
Kentucky is 2-2 with wins against Toledo and Eastern Michigan. Its other loss came against South Carolina 35-13. The win over Arkansas also does not help the Rebels much, since the Razorbacks are 2-3, including a loss to Memphis.
The Rebels hold the highest ranking in the SEC, with upcoming dates versus two challenging opponents in No. 5 Oklahoma and No. 12 Georgia.
Ole Miss fans saw just how much last year’s win over Georgia boosted the team’s playoff odds. With that one win, the daunting loss to unranked Kentucky and three-point loss to LSU could have been forgiven.
With the win over LSU last Saturday, Ole Miss is no longer perceived as a possible playoff team but a legitimate playoff contender. If the Rebels take care of business against Oklahoma and Georgia, it feels certain that Ole Miss will be in the playoffs. A lot can happen, but the season hinges on those two road games.
Oklahoma is without star quarterback and preseason Heisman favorite John Mateer for a month due to injury, leaving the Sooners vulnerable. Similarly, Georgia, which lost at home to then-No. 17 Alabama this past week, has not looked as indestructible as in years past.
Last year, a three-loss Ole Miss team did not make the playoffs. It stands to reason that the same applies this year, which means the Rebels need to finish at least 10-2 in the regular season.
The only way an Ole Miss team with wins over LSU, Oklahoma and Georgia could miss the playoffs is if the Rebels drop games against all three remaining SEC opponents — South Carolina, Florida and Mississippi State — which seems unlikely, as the Rebels are favored in all three matchups.
A more likely scenario is Ole Miss dropping a game to either Oklahoma or Georgia. In this case, the postseason picture would change slightly. The Rebels could afford only one other loss to feel comfortable.
With the way South Carolina (3-2, 1-2 SEC) and Florida (1-3, 0-1 SEC) have played this year, Ole Miss should — keyword should — be able to take care of business. The Gamecocks and Gators have more talent than their records indicate, though.
South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers and Florida quarterback DJ Lagway were projected to be two of the top signal-callers in the country at the beginning of the season, and both have the sheer talent to will their teams to wins.
Through four games last year, the Gators were 2-2 (1-1 SEC). Then, to end the season, Florida beat LSU, Ole Miss, Florida State and Tulane — proving that a Napier and Lagway-led team cannot be discarded easily.
Before the season, it seemed like a sure bet that the Egg Bowl trophy would be staying in Oxford, but Mississippi State has impressed many this year. While the Bulldogs are not ranked, AP voters have given the team recognition thanks to a win against then-No. 12 Arizona State and for putting up a fight against No. 15 Tennessee last week.
The Egg Bowl is always scrappy, and a Mississippi State team with a chance to knock Ole Miss out of playoff contention is dangerous.
The Rebels have a great chance to make the College Football Playoffs. Though a good deal still hinges on road matchups against Oklahoma and Georgia, Ole Miss is in full control of its future.
