No matter which bubble students mark on their ballots, this presidential election is shaping up to be one of the closest races in modern history.
In recent days, candidates former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris have swapped the lead in multiple national and swing state polls. Recent polling from Rasmussen Reports favors Trump by 1% while Emerson polling favors Harris by 1%, both polls lying within the margin of error. Simply put, the race is a dead tie, and the 2-5% of voters still undecided will determine the outcome.
So what are Americans looking for, and what should students be considering as they head to the polls? I propose a shift in focus away from partisan rhetoric and media blitzes to a discussion of policies — a discussion that reveals former President Trump’s stances are aligned with the majority of Americans’ concerns.
Ranked as a top issue among Gen Z, the economy and cost-of-living is on the minds of many first time voters. According to Gallup polling, 98% of Republicans/Republican-leaning voters say the economy is “extremely/very important” in their decision, and 82% of Democrats/Democrat-leaning voters say the same.
The economy remains a strong point for Trump, with voters favoring his policies by 9% over Harris. Trump’s new proposals of eliminating tax-on-tips and social security payments are representative of his commitment to middle- and working-class voters, a key demographic both candidates need to win.
Furthermore, voters have consistently favored Trump’s performance on the economy during his first term, rating it at 63% approval to the Biden-Harris administration’s 38% according to CBS polling. While Harris has tried to separate herself from these numbers on the campaign trail, her presented policies would create the 15th largest tax increase since 1940, while Trump’s plan would result in the 6th largest tax cut since the same time.
Combining the expected outcomes of her tax policies with her performance as the sitting vice president in the Biden administration, it comes as no surprise that voters are leaning toward the former president on this issue.
Beyond the clear contrast in economic performance, Kamala’s stance and performance on border security has resulted in an evident loss of support for her candidacy on the issue.
While running for the 2020 Democratic nomination, Harris drew stark criticism for pledging to close immigrant detention centers, the structures used by The U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement to house illegal migrants prior to legal proceedings or removal from the country. After a record number of illegal crossings during the Biden-Harris administration and Harris’ rise to the Democratic nomination, she now promises to be tougher on the border.
For many, this promise is too little, too late. Favorability polls have shown that voters widely favor Trump’s consistent message and policies of strict border enforcement by 21% over Harris. In swing states like Arizona, where the election will be decided, voters ranking the issue of high priority prefer Trump’s border policy by 89%.
Another issue of concern among voters, abortion access, has greatly divided Americans of all ages since the overturning of Roe v. Wade in June 2022. Nearly four in 10 women under the age of 30 have ranked abortion as their top issue in the election.
Because of Trump’s appointment of three conservative Supreme Court Justices that led to the overturning of Roe, the issue of abortion remains Harris’ strongest, retaining 54% support on the issue compared to Trump’s 33%. Despite this, recent proposals and commitments from both candidates on the campaign trail have shifted this issue in national conversation.
Harris’ plan to sign a national bill reinstating the protections of Roe seem impractical and impossible in the current political climate. Such a bill first must be passed in Congress with 60 or more votes in the Senate. This type of consensus in Congress on the issue of abortion has been tried since Roe was overturned with no success.
To override the needed Senate supermajority, Harris has proposed eliminating the filibuster, a legal policy tool that has been used since 1837. Public polling has shown only 19% of Americans agree with eliminating the filibuster, while the rest of America thinks it should stay the same or be limited in its use on the Senate floor.
Based on this, Harris’s only proposed plan to restore federal abortion protections as it was under Roe v. Wade hinges on a Congress that will likely never have the votes to pass the bill and an unpopular proposal to eliminate a centuries-old protection governing how laws are made in America.
In contrast, Trump has long stated his belief in exceptions to restrictions on abortion, even prior to the Dobbs decision that overturned Roe v. Wade. Trump has stated his support for and commitment to exceptions that allow abortion in the case of rape, incest or to save the life of the mother.
Further, Trump has shifted focus on the issue prior to his potential second term by committing to veto any federal ban on abortion brought forth by Congress. This realignment was also evidenced when the Republican party announced it was dropping efforts to pass a national abortion ban from its platform in 2024. Polling from AP-NORC reflected the popularity of this position, stating that 7 in 10 Americans opposed a federal restriction on abortion at the sixth week of pregnancy.
Despite the actions of the Supreme Court in overturning Roe, Trump’s stances on abortion are uniquely aligned with where the majority of Americans stand on the issue today.
As we see by the candidates’ stances on issues, proposed policies and past effectiveness in their given roles, one candidate better reflects the majority of American citizens. Will voters choose Harris, who was once rated among the most liberal senators in 2019, or will they choose former President Trump, who stands for moderate policies of Middle America? In a few short days, the choice will be yours, America.
Denton Jenkins is a junior public policy leadership major from Starkville, Miss.
